Visual Novels

[eharper256]

[Maxine MagicFox]

[Sampson]

Maxine should post theories for Episode 1!

[Maxine MagicFox]

You sure you want to listen, because also a part of me really can't remember the Red Truths from later games so I was just going to play based on what I learn as I go. And I'm sure that there's a lot of details that you guys know that would put my theories to shame. Not that my theories will even be that good or are that concrete.

[spoiler]I still am up on the wall about who I want to believe more that could do this. Still, I have to like someone for it and the more I think on who has the most to gain by killing everyone, Jessica is the one that comes to mind the most. She detests the family. Everyone from the head to her own parents and she's the only one with no real way "out".

I also do not believe that these crimes could be committed with only one person. I also believe that there are some mechanical traps involved and set up. Jessica and Kanon seems easy to pick if I'm going with Jessica, but Kanon's death was very clear. He died, no secrets. Even as Nanjo tried to save him. I do feel a servant HAS to be involved. For example, if I go with the mechanical traps theory, the servants were the ones who "prepared the rooms." Eva&Hideyoshi's room could very easily have had mechanical traps set up in this way.

Possibilities that have crossed my mind for various details:
- Maria could easily be confused by some kind of costume or suggestion. If I go with the Jessica/servant theory, they could have been working on her for quite some time. It could have even started as some early joke that Jessica and servant teased her with, especially if the servant is the joking Kumasawa. The young, innocent Maria could have seen Jessica/servant wearing something weird when she was young and the lie about them being Beatrice began. And could have easily continued.

- Door scratches. The last scene we see Shannon in, she is doing her rounds throughout the mansion. What if she were attacked and the claw marks are her trying to open and get inside that room?

Now we get to the closed rooms:

We had the locked shed, Eva's room, and Nanjo's study.

Nanjo's study:
At the end of the game, there is one call that is able to come into Nanjo's study. This phone might be the only one working the entire time from the beginning. I don't know how this detail figures in, but I don't think that it's something that should be ignored. Someone could call from the parlor into the study.

One of the possibilites was mentioned by Battler. Nanjo could easily have been pushed out the window, the window was locked, the culprit then hid until the receipt was removed. Not all of the servants can be accounted for at this time, but I did not record who was where at this time. Flaw in my notes so I could be wrong.

Other possibility: I do remember there being a Red Truth about there being no other "exit". I can't see Nanjo 'hiding' for any particular reason. As Eva said, the though of Nanjo hiding under a bed is laughable. But, we are only trying to give him a place to hide until the receipt is removed. What if there's a secret compartment in the room? Not necessarily an exit of any sort, but a closet sort of thing. Hell, this is Nanjo we are talking about - it could be a room where he has a bunch of magic circles painted or something. He could be busy in there. Left and missed the two siblings, and then received some kind of phone call the lured him out of the room. If a servant were involved, I'm sure they'd know SOMETHING to remove him from in there.

The Shed:
easily could be figured out if I'm placing a servant as a culprit.

Eva's Room/Killings:
Mechanical contraptions are the easiest theory. Prepared by the servants.
If we don't want that, could there be another entrance into this particular room? (I do not know if there were ever a Red Truth stated about this one.)

The symbol suddenly appearing there - I'm believing a servant is a culprit. Kumasawa was in the kitchen, accompanied by a Nanjo studying a chessboard. Not the best air-tight alibi in the world, particularly if she's going back and forth collecting ingredients. Kanon ran to get the pliers, he's absolved, unless we are doubting everyone that Battler has not seen. But then, EVERYTHING is suspect in that case and I have nothing to theorize on since Battler was not there to see Nanjo being with Kumasawa or Genji with Kanon.

Natsuhi's death:
This gone has been modified. It's suspect. I dunno if you can modify a gun to kill the shooter. ^_^; I doubt it, but, you never know. Then there's the fact that it could be a mechanical contraption of some sort. Of course, there's the fact that the kids only heard a single shot. They could just not have heard a second shot. Or the culprit used a silencer. It... could even have been a ricochet shot (OMG SHE SHOT HER EYE OUT <--- Christmas Story jumps to mind for some odd reason). Of course, how thick was the door they were trying to bang open, how loud were they trying to break it, and how aware were they really of a second shot? They could have missed Natsuhi firing her gun and it was the culprit's gun they heard going off.


Errr, did I miss anything else that I should theorize. ^_^; I'm not very good at this, at all. [/spoiler]

[Sampson]

You mixed up Kinzo with Nanjo. :P

You've seen the anime for Episode 4, right? Since I'll be bringing that up.

[spoiler]Well, Kinzo's still dead before the game begins. So it's not a "how did he die" thing as much as it is a "who could have burned his body" thing.

I do think Jessica is involved, at least so I can deal with Episode 2.

About Eva and Hideyoshi...Scy brought up a good point: the closed room could have been faked. All Battler sees is a broken chain. Kanon could have broken the chain, killed the two, put the stakes in, tape the chain back together temporarily, then when he went there with Kumasawa, cut it before she could notice.

I believe someone was faking their death somewhere in the game (1st Twilight or Kanon), they were the Beatrice that Maria saw in the parlor, and they shot Natsuhi. And maybe they're the figure Battler sees at the end.

I'm really not that good at this...well, I suppose I could be if I knew the games better...but I haven't thought too much about the first game.[/spoiler]

[Maxine MagicFox]

[Maxine MagicFox]

Oh, btw, BEST MUSIC TRACK EVER!!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93VODUlLuRk[/youtube]

:3 That started playing and I saved and reloaded just so I could max up the volume and try to make out what they were saying which I felt fit the scene fucking perfectly.

[spoiler]I mean, the letter just appears out of absolutely NO WHERE. I remember from the anime, but still, just the way it was written. And then the screen flashes and she's holding up the gun and that music just starts playing. :3 I definitely got a thrill up my spine.[/spoiler]

I don't get it. This game and the anime are essentially the same. I dunno why I'm connecting with it so much better than I did the anime. :\ I mean, I couldn't even tell you what music tracks are in the anime.

[scy]

Hm.
[spoiler]@Other entrances:
Knox's Rules disallows them; I'd keep this from you but not having to deal with "BUT WHAT IF THE PANEL SLIDES INTO A DOOR!" theories when reading will probably help you a lot.

@Faking Deaths:
Nanjo being involved is practically a given, in my opinion. The biggest clue we have for the deaths is when they occur. The doctor's involvement allows for these to be shuffled about at will and create alibis out of nothing. Removing him as a suspect/accomplice tightens the window and makes for more 'impossible' murders; though, in that sense, it makes them more like magic (the bigger the risk, the greater the magic, etc.).

For this reason, Shannon (1st Twilight) or Kanon (4th Twilight) are my targets for faked deaths. Krauss has little value as a murder suspect, mainly since outside of boxing goats he's useless, so I throw him out. Shannon is never shown, which strengthens her chance of being faked (plus every Red Truth conveniently allows her to survive this scene); likewise, Kanon's death is never shown (and the weapon is never properly staked in him) and the Red Truths are equally vague on his survival status.

Remember, Red Truths are truths ... they can just be misleading.
Kanon did not die in an accident! does not disallow there being an accident nor does it disallow him being alive; I can state with absolute certainty that I did not die in an accident and it will be the truth. All the sentence states is that Kanon was not killed in an accident; it says nothing about him currently being alive or dead or if there was an accident at all. You can apply this logic to all Red Truths.

@Eva & Hideyoshi:
Sampson already mentioned it for me but my favorite theory for the room is a simple pre-cut chain. It's the most logical and everything points to it (they even note that the door wasn't even tried to be opened; merely opened to the point of seeing the chain).

The symbol on the door isn't too hard to work with either; hell, all one needs is a sheet with the design cut from it (i.e., a giant stencil) and paint thrown at it. This is a red herring or at least a huge misdirection, in my opinion.

@Kinzo:
From Game 4:
Kinzo's life or death status is the same at the start of each of the four games.
The setup was not different for the fourth game alone...!
Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!
Before now, I have proclaimed that no more than 18 humans exist on this island.
I will lower that by one for Kinzo!!
No more than 17 humans exist on this island!!

It's the big Red Truth reveal during Game 4 after Ange dies; it's the counter to the Blue Truth used by Battler as the only logical explanation for his status. The anime does indeed mention this and it's like one of the few Blue Truths he uses there.

@Kanon:
His death is the easiest to fake (next to the 1st Twilight Krauss or Shannon). In fact, Kanon's death is surrounded with the most clarifications really.

@Kumasawa, Genji, and Nanjo:
I'm personally a fan of the "murdered by the faked death" theory. I guess, in reality, this series of deaths has the least mentioned about it but, at the same time, it only needed one Red Truth to crush any possibilities here.

@Natushi:
I do believe even the Anime gave the Red Truth for this; there was no bouncing bullet, no exploding barrel, no trick gun. A person stood before her and shot her dead.

The thing that shot Natsuhi wasn't a trap, it was a real shooting murder with a gun raised and trigger pulled! [/spoiler]

[Maxine MagicFox]

[spoiler]Yeah, this morning I went through and was surfing around the Witch Hunt website and discovered Knox's rules.
http://www.diogenes-club.com/knoxrules.htm

However, it allows for ONE possible sliding room, door theory.
"No more than one secret room or passage is allowable. I would add that a secret passage should not be brought in at all unless the action takes place in the kind of house where such devices might be expected; "

However, I think you're right. It's a crappy mystery-device mechanism.

I also read in a wikipedia article about the "Raven Paradox" which I think is directed solely at Red Truths.

@Nanjo: I dunno. Him being involved would be MUCH too easy. I don't like him for it in the least because of how easy it makes things when you do make him suspect. I also just can't help feel that in this scenario, we could almost call him the "Chinaman" listed in the Knox Rules. To make him a culprit breaks this rule. It's too easy.

Speaking of Knox Rules, one of the things I'm happy that it lists is that the "detective" cannot have committed the crimes. This throws out the possibility that Battler could be doing it. I was secretly keeping that one under my hat. There are a few times, such as in the kitchen confronting the servants, that Battler can be very... weird.

@Red Truths:
I've not read a one in the game yet and while I don't mind you posting them and showing them to me and I will try to keep them in my head ^_^ Please forgive me if I try for a few theories that ignores Truths I have not seen yet. Besides it can hamper theorizing, knowing all the truths at once. If I know the truths I dismiss theories before putting them together, rather than thinking they could be possible and forming them and then learn something new and then I have the chance to find a way that it could be editted - something I couldn't do if I throw it out the window before it's even started. :3

The Kinzo one I will take the heart, as well as the 17 people on the island.
Question, though: what is Beatrice counting as "beginning of the game"? Is the beginning of the game the moment they arrive on the island or the moment they receive the first letter or Beatrice shows up/whatever lets the family know they must solve the riddle?[/spoiler]

[Sampson]

[spoiler]
I think Nanjo's involved just to help people fake their deaths.

The Nanjo web of red in Game 3 proves that he was lying if you believe the most accepted solution.[/spoiler]

[scy]

[spoiler]Knox's Rules as a whole disallows secret passages; however, Ryukishi does change it to allow for one. It's most likely to be the entrance to the Kuwadorian. I had that originally but figured I'd just leave it as 'Knox's Rules disallows them.'

The 'Chinaman' is literally that, for the most part. Knox's Rules came about at a time of mystery novels when impossible murders were to be committed by ... a random foreigner (typically Chinese, at that). In the case of Umineko, Nanjo is very much a part of the 'family' and is not a 'Chinaman' by definition. For Umineko, a 'Chinaman' would be if an alien or some character beyond the scope of the story were to be the murderer. You cannot suspect them for they were never involved.

Beatrice's 'Game' refers to the start of October 4th, 1986 and goes until the end of the 5th (or earlier, if the case is solved or the murders cease or whatever).

@Raven Paradox:
Sort of, yes. It's more of a p therefore q and somehow a sentence z proves p by being proof to q. That is, we take something that dismisses the claim (i.e., This book is red) to prove the initial claim itself (i.e., All ravens are black). We have an object that is red and that object is not a raven; therefore, we have proven that a non-black object is a non-raven (i.e., z proves q). However, the paradox comes from now being able to state that as proof that all ravens are black is true.

p -> q
z = q
Ergo:
z proves p

In Umineko terms:
Kinzo's corpse is always burned.
All non-burned corpses are not Kinzo.

Shannon's corpse is not burned. (A non-burned corpse and it isn't Kinzo)
Therefore, Kinzo's coprse is always burned is true.

It's jumping to a conclusion based off a single instance proving a logically equivalent claim and extenuating it to all instances of another equivalent claim.

Incidentally, both these initial claims are false (there are indeed non-black ravens and Kinzo's corpse is not always burned~).

@Red Truths
The one's I listed were covered in the Anime (well, the Kanon one maybe wasn't but I just went with it as an example for a point).[/spoiler]

[Maxine MagicFox]

[spoiler]@Red Truths in anime:

I mentioned in my first post that I'm ignoring what I learned in the anime. The anime disinterested me and you've told me before there were a lot of inconsistencies. Not to mention the fact that I just can't remember them. I can't really remember jack about the anime, to the be quite honest, other than how it bored me to tears and was not as exciting as I was hoping. I don't remember any of the points that I ever argued or even the points in the anime that I thought were fantastic. :\ It's really like I never watched it. I sometimes wonder if there's something wrong with my memory.

I enjoyed the first story arc in the visual novel FAR more than I ever did the anime. However, the true test comes in this second arc if I'm going to enjoy this game or not. What disappointed me the most was the lack of actual "thinking" by Battler. Pffft, already in the first arc, VN-Battler is FAR superior to anime-Battler. I actually feel like he's making a real attempt to try to figure things out.

@Chinaman: I see. I depicted him as it meaning some foreigner in the scope of the story that no one wants to suspect because while he's in the story, the events occuring don't really seem to affect him in any way. He's there and yes he's scared for his life, but he has no connection to the money or is even imprisoned by the family in any way. He has no apparent gains. For such a character to suddenly come up and say "oh, yeah I really do have a connection!" just seems like a big fucking disappointment.


BTW, in case it's not obvious: I don't read many mystery novels... no... none at all, actually. ^_^; The mere idea of picking up a Nancy Drew just... turns me off. This, however, just seems fun, but that also means I'm new to how mystery novels and shit work.

[/spoiler]

[scy]

Hm.
[spoiler]Nanjo is far from unrelated. He has more connections than some of the direct family.

As for the anime, it left a lot out (and visual inconsistencies) but all the Red Truths, Blue Truths, etc. were accurate.

Anyway, 'Chinaman' really referred to using a "OH LOOK THIS RANDOM FOREIGNER DID IT BECAUSE HE IS A FOREIGNER" as the murderer, motive, and everything. It's kind of akin to the "THE BUTLER DID IT!" trope for murder mysteries. They exist for the sole purpose to be the murderer with no other connection to be made.[/spoiler]

[Maxine MagicFox]

[spoiler]But I heard that they left quite a few red truths and such out.

o_O Nanjo has connections. Tries to remember. I really don't recall anything to that affect in the anime. In fact, after the first arc, I really can't remember much about Nanjo in the least, but that just might be faulty memory.

*nods* Ok, I get the Chinaman reference then. I see.

Bah, I just got done with the damn scene between Rosa and the halloween candy. In the first episode, Rosa wasn't made out to be that harsh with Maria. Faulty, maybe, but not like the anime displayed, but these scenes really throw the relationship into view and I'm sad to see that the anime really did follow that scene very closely.

Poor Maria.

I still find her damn creepy, though. I do have to wonder, though, if Maria doesn't suffer from some developmental delays. I mean, could she be like some kind of savant? Not that such information would absolve Rosa in any way. In fact, it would only make it that much more damning >_<. God I hate you, Rosa!!


Oh, that reminds me: last night while searching for the System0 song (not knowing what the name of it even was) I remember finding Maria Happy Uta or something like that. o_O; ... weird.... song... >_> I have THAT to look forward to listen to. LOL. It's so cute and happy but for the fact that it's Maria... it's so creepy then.[/spoiler]

[/spoiler]

[scy]

[spoiler]I worded that wrong; they left out Red Truths but the ones used were accurate. That and they were the big ones for the most part. A lot of the skipped ones are things you need to know but aren't over-your-head ones for the most part.

And a lot of Beatrice laughing. Because those needed Red Truths, I suppose.[/spoiler]

As for Nanjo
[spoiler]Separate just in case.

He's a pivotal piece as far as alibis are concerned (and the critical Red Truth of Game 3 revolves around him). As for relation to the family, he, Genji, and Kinzo are all close for many, many years. Also, both his and Kumasawa's family were paid off in Game 4 for some reason (though I think the mailing of the letter is put into Game 4 specific timing). Nanjo's sick grandchild is also brought up quite a lot and is the usual reason that people see Nanjo as having a reason for being an accomplice.[/spoiler]